Decline in international oil prices

After just experiencing a wave of “continuous decline”, domestic oil prices are expected to usher in “three consecutive falls”.

At 24:00 on July 26, a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open, and the agency predicts that the current round of refined oil prices will show a downward trend, ushering in the fourth reduction in the year.

Recently, the international oil price as a whole has shown a range shock trend, which is still in the adjustment stage. In particular, WTI crude oil futures fell sharply after the month change, and the price difference between WTI crude oil futures and Brent crude oil futures widened rapidly. Investors are still in a wait-and-see attitude towards futures prices.

Affected by the fluctuation and decline of international crude oil prices, the agency estimated that as of the ninth working day of July 25, the average price of the reference crude oil was $100.70 per barrel, with a change rate of -5.55%. It is expected that the domestic gasoline and diesel oil will be reduced by 320 yuan per ton, equivalent to about 0.28 yuan per liter of gasoline and diesel oil. After this round of oil price adjustment, No. 95 gasoline in some regions is expected to return to the “8 Yuan era”.

In the view of analysts, the international crude oil futures price continued to decline, the dollar rose to a recent high and remained high, and the Federal Reserve raised interest rates again and the possibility of inflation causing demand destruction increased, bringing some negative pressure on crude oil. However, the crude oil market is still in a state of supply shortage, and oil prices are still supported to a certain extent in this environment.

Analysts said that U.S. President Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia did not achieve the expected results to a certain extent. Although Saudi Arabia has stated that it will increase its oil production by another 1million barrels, how to implement the production has not been known, and the increase in production is difficult to make up for the current lack of supply in the crude oil market. Crude oil once rose continuously to offset some of the decline.